Mumbai : India have a razor-thin edge over co-hosts Sri Lanka and South Africa as predicted favourites for the coveted World Cup crown while defending champions Australia came fourth in the indicator. India have a 22 per cent chance to emerge as champions, followed by South Africa and Sri Lanka with a 21 per cent chance while four-time winners Australia, despite their recent return to form, only managed to round off the top four teams expected to win the title, according to the newly launched Castrol Predictor. Commenting on the predictions, 1983 World Cup hero Mohinder Amarnath said though he did not believe in statistics totally, the factors that have gone into the predictions have thrown up some interesting insights, a media release said today. “While all of us are hoping India will lift the Cup, it is always wise to have a neutral statistical viewpoint on who is likely to lift the coveted trophy on April 2nd,” said Amarnth, who was a key member of Kapil Dev’s victorious team 28 years ago. “Personally, I have never been inclined to believe in statistics completely, but the Castrol Index does provide some interesting insights that a normal cricket fan would otherwise miss,” he added. According to the index, India led the batting department while Sri Lanka seemed to have the edge over all other competitors when it comes to bowling. South Africa topped the overall index before additional factors, like home advantage, performance in past editions of the World Cup are factored in. India and Sri Lanka also benefit from playing most of their matches at home, while all three teams would be encouraged by their recent form going into the competition. Whilst there are hardly any surprises about the four most likely teams tipped as most likely to win the Cup, the one surprise that comes out of the analysis is that co-hosts Bangladesh are rated as strong contenders for a place in the quarter-finals, the release said. While they are quite evenly matched with the West Indies, they move ahead of the former two-time winners when the factor of home advantage is taken into consideration. The predictor uses a series of match simulations to project the winning chances of every team going into a match or competition, the release said.